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Thanks…….!

Check out my “Early Post” below……….

I would just like to take a moment to thank some of the people, whom without their great work (meaning their blogs), I would probably be down rather large over the last few days (and weeks), instead of being up, and mostly in cash overnight.

There is the “Holy Trinity” of course, consisting of Trader Mike, Wall St. Warrior, and Trader X.

I will put on that list Henry Brookins of Brookins Buys

Dan Zanger of Chartpattern.com

….as well as some other very good blogs such as 00nr7, movethemarkets, and Pinoy Trader….

I also suspect Est 2007 (Tom C. a Trader X protege will be a valuable one in the coming year).

And don’t forget Trading Goddess whom I enjoy as well.

My hope is that someday, my blog will help out fellow traders, like the people above have helped me.

There are a number of other blogs I have been reading on a regular basis, and just haven’t had a chance to add to the blogroll, but I will be putting them in over the next few days.

Early post!

I figured out that I can do posts midday if I have the time, and thus cut down my nighttime workload,  so here is a trade I just finished.

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Second best day ever!

Yes, it was my second best day ever in terms of profit, but more important, it was done with very well defined risk.

Today’s trades are not “dummy type” trades like I normally do.  They were a little different.  First of all, I came into the day with a very large short position in POT (Potash Corporation).  I went short yesterday on POT for a number of reasons.

1.  I had watched two of the three remaining strong sectors (exchanges, solars, and agriculture/fertilizer) collapse, and cracks were appearing in the last one, Ag/Fert.

2.  The crack came in the form of POT and others in the sector gapping up to or above resistance, and then reversing down.

3.  POT received two upgrades yesterday, one with a price target of $195.00, yet it could not hold it’s breakout attempt.  Also, upgrades often come near tops (as downgrades often come at bottoms).

4.  Lastly, because of the proximity of OEX, I was able to take a large position, and buy some cheap calls to limit my downside, in case POT attempted to run (or the Fed came out with a “surprise” rate cut).

So with POT is was just a case of seeing if it dropped (boy did it), and finding a place to get out.  I honestly thought it would take 2-3 days possibly for it to fall, but it did all the work in two hours.  Here are the two charts I was simultaneously watching for an exit.

pot-exit-day.jpg

pot-my-exit.jpg                             

 ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) was a whole different story.  This stock was looking sick coming into today, and after it gapped down, and made a pathetic attempt at a rally (which ended at the previous days lows), it was just a break of the ORL, and holding on for dear life.

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Throw a dart!

There were any number of momo stocks you could have shorted near the open and made some nice money.  Unfortunately, most did not have any real signal bars.  But I did find one that reminded me of a classic Trader X short.  It was in GRMN (Garmin, Ltd.)

On a side note:  I wonder if Trader X took his name from Racer X of the Speed Racer show?

grmn-short-entry.jpg

grmn-short-cover.jpg

Duh!

What is hot right now?  Ag and fertilizer stocks like POT, MOS, TRA, COIN, etc… 

So that is where the action would be, and sometimes the entries and moves are so obvious that a blind trader could find them.

Check out the two charts below with good set ups, nice breaks, and no close below the 5MA.

pot-long.jpg

mos.jpg

Now ask me if I trader either of these obvious stocks.  And of course the answer is “No”!  I was too busy chasing some iffy setups that did not work out.  POT and MOS were on my watch list, I just lost focus and missed their moves.  Maybe this post should be re-titled “Doh”!

Today was daddy-daughter day, so I didn’t do any trading.  Instead  I thought I would help with a problem that often comes up for traders, how to explain short selling to civilians.

Over the last few months, whenever I am asked at a social function what I do, and I respond “I trade stocks”, I get that “look” that ranges from pity to Schadenfreude, followed by something akin to them saying “things must be pretty tough, huh?”  I of course respond that I am doing fine, because I can make money when the market moves down by……………

SHORTING…..!!!! (insert glazed look in conversationalist’s eyes).

My mother actually thinks that am doing something illegal when I tell her I can make money when a stock goes down.  Personally, I never had an issue with the concept of shorting, which is maybe why I am a trader, but for others who do, I have developed a simple way to explain it.  It goes like this…..

A share of stock is standardized, just like a book, meaning each share of IBM is the same, just like every copy of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, on the shelf at the local bookstore is the same.  So let’s say your best friend just bought a brand new copy of Harry Potter, and the moment he brought it home you asked him to borrow it.  Now that you have borrowed it from him, you owe him back one copy of Harry Potter.  So you take the copy he loaned you, and you sell it.  Maybe you sell it on Ebay, maybe at a garage sale, maybe to an individual, it doesn’t really matter.  You get $25.00 for the book when you sell it.  Now you still owe your friend one copy of Harry Potter, so you order a copy on-line, at a discount book wholesaler.  That copy only costs you $19.95.  The book arrives, and you return it to your friend, and keep the difference between what you sold it for ($25.00), and what you bought it back for ($19.95).  You have thus made money by selling something you did not own, and then buying it back for (and replacing it) for less that you sold it for.

Short selling is the same concept, you just replace a share of stock of XYZ company, for the copy of the Harry Potter book.  In the above example, the venue you sell the book in could be various, but with the stock, it is the open market.  Now if you were unable to buy the book back for the $25.00 or less that you sold it for, you would have had to cover the difference out of your own pocket, and thus lost money.  The same would go for the stock example as well.

If they don’t understand the concept of short selling after this explanation, then they never will.

ICE continues….!

Yesterday I mentioned that I was carrying a half position in ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) overnight.  I held that position the whole day, but “piggybacked” some trades on top of it.

ice-thurs.jpg

This second trade of the day comes under the heading of “pressing your luck”.  Like I also mentioned yesterday, I usually get large losses after days where I think I am trading great.  This was a marginal trade, but the market was acting “irrational” in it’s rally, and I thought that might just be the tipping point to take the trade.  (Can anyone say “rationalization”)?

ice-second-thurs.jpg

Perfect trading?

Don’t worry, generally when I think that way, I get slammed the next day.  Having said that, I have to say I may have had the best day I have ever had as a trader.  Not because of the money made, but because of the trades.  I was patient, sized my positions correctly, added on when needed, and switched from short to long at the right time.

The only mistake I had was that I did come into the day with a short bias.  I felt if the market tried a little rally in the morning, that it would set up a great short opportunity.  That is in fact what happened, but in general, it is best to come into the day with a neutral bias, and then trade the way the set ups take you.

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By the way….

I have updated my Profile page, as well as created a seperate Favorites page, so you can compare your favorite things with mine (as I know you have always been dying to do……..).

What a day!

I have commented on how hard it is to day trade ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), but there were two pretty good set ups on it today.  ICE was very oversold coming into today, so initially I was looking for a bounce.

ice-entry.jpg

ice-exit.jpg

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By the way, if anyone hasn’t yet seen the Bill Gates retirement video, check it out below….very funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbysP-9AryQ

 

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